The Trade Risk Index is a very powerful economic instrument which can be used in several ways. The following current analyzes are an abstract of our work for the automotive sector and the beverage sector.
The Development of Trade Risk between Germany and the USA in the manufacturing sector
Trade risk and costs are falling evenly in the manufacturing sector since the 2010. Since the beginning of Donald Trump's presidency in the US in 2017 the volatility of the index has increased. This is a clear sign that the current trade policy affects the economy and the trading behavior. Despite the heightened volatility, the trend of the index remains stable. It is expected that trade risks and costs will continue to decline. (The calculation is based on data from Destatis, EZB, BEA and U. S. Census Bureau.)
The Impact of the VW Emissions Scandal and the Trade Policy on the Trade Risk in the Automotive Sector
In contrast to the manufacturing sector, the Trade Risk Index of the automotive sector is rising significantly since the VW emissions scandal was revealed in the third quarter 2015. Since this third quarter 2015, when trade risk was lowest, the trade risk mounted by nearly 30%. The sharp increase of the trade risk in 2018 is also due to the EU-US trade dispute and the announcement of car tariffs. Compared to the Trade Risk Index of the manufacturing sector in the figure above it is obvious that the increase in trade risks and costs is an important issue of the automotive sector, while trade risks for the entire manufacturing sector are decreasing. (The calculation is based on data from Destatis, EZB, BEA and U. S. Census Bureau.)
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Risks and Chances for the German Trade with the OECD Members States in the Beverage Sector
(The calculation is based on data from Destatis and OECD.)
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The Trade Risk Index (TRI) illustrates the costs and risks of trade between countries. For sales opportunities, prices, etc., it provides no information. In addition, the TRI is based on economic data, which is a cross-section of all individuals, companies and organizations participating in international trade.